What will come of Facebook in 2018

Facebook’s Annual Revenue:

2017: $40.7 billion
2016: $27.6 billion
2015: $17.9 billion
2014: $12.5 billion
2013: $7.9 billion
2012: $5.1 billion

Facebook’s monthly active users:

2017: 2.13 billion
2016: 1.9 billion
2015: 1.6 billion
2014: 1.4 billion
2013: 1.2 billion
2012: 1.1 billion
2011: 845 million
2010: 608 million
2009: 360 million
2008: 140 million
2007: 50 million
2006: 12 million
2005: 5 million
2004: 1 million

Facebook’s global advertising revenue growth rate over past 4Q’s via company releases, with 2016 comp shown in brackets

Q1 2017: 51% (57%)
Q2 2017: 47% (63%)
Q3 2017: 49% (59%)
Q4 2017: 48% (53%)

Facebook revenue and employees are both still growing at 50% yearly

Facebook basically revealed that users spend about 1 billion hours a day on the network.

That puts it slightly behind YouTube, which last year surpassed 1 billion hours a day.


– Q1’2018: Time spent on Facebook dropped by 50 MILLION HOURS PER DAY in Q4’2017

-The number of people using Facebook daily in North America dropped for the first time — dropped by a MILLION users!

* Facebook reported 184 million daily average users in Q4 2017, down from 185 million in Q3.

* It is the first such drop since Facebook began reporting these numbers in its earnings report.

They are reportedly testing these features to increase user engagement

– Subscribe button
– Private comments
– Tip jar
– Markdown
– Mention a friend
– Profile avatars next mentions of friends name

* It suggests that Facebook’s most lucrative market has become saturated in terms of usage, which means it will have to add more ads, or charge more for ads, to keep growing.

Facebook basically revealed that users spend about 1 billion hours a day on the network.

That puts it slightly behind YouTube, which last year surpassed 1 billion hours a day.

Zuckerberg: “Already last quarter, we made changes to show fewer viral videos to make sure people’s time is well spent. In total, we made changes that reduced time spent on Facebook by roughly 50 million hours every day.”


Mark Zuckerberg has expressed some interest in cryptocurrencies lately. It is unsure whether these interested are related to Facebook or just personal.

Viewing the world top down vs bottoms up:

Bitcoin maximalists are overwhelmingly economists. Not all, but most

And their arguments are generally framed in the lens of an economist:

Monetary policy
Conservative dev cycle
Theoretical Maximal decentralization of block production
Lower attack surface
Easier to understand
“Sound money”

These are all top-down arguments

ETH maximalists, on the other hand, tend to view the world from the bottom up:

How do I build something people want?

How do I build something useful?

In general, top down thinking is a good heuristic to use with well known, understood concepts

But it’s not great for projecting into the future to model poorly understood concepts

The world is messy. Using top down frameworks to project bottoms up behaviors doesn’t really work


90s: The internet will free everyone from govs (actually, mass surveillance state)

In this light, you want to bet on teams that think relentlessly in a bottoms up way: how do I attract new users? How do I solve problems?

The more I think about it, the more I want to bet on an army of well funded, capable teams who know how to build things users want, and market to them.

On a long enough time scale, I find it nearly impossible to make the case that this coalition won’t win.

It’s not just betting on human ingenuity.

Although it’s correct, it’s a bit too abstract of a view.

Rather, it’s a bet on orgs – leaders, financiers, product, marketers, sales, research, and devs – coalescing and building each of the respective futures they envision

As Gandhi said “be the change you want to see in the world”

Don’t bet against army of people who believe that.